THIS WEEKEND The highly-anticipated launch of the high school romance The Twilight Saga: New Moon could send the North American box office soaring to its highest level in 16 months. The female-driven phenomenon will have some company on the charts as Sandra Bullock’s football drama The Blind Side and the animated comedy Planet 51 will offer some new choices to those not interested in vampires, werewolves, and the ladies in between. With some big holdovers still in release, the top ten will be flirting with the $200M mark making it the largest November weekend in history.
Summit scored a massive blockbuster this weekend last year with Twilight which spun gold from a popular novel with a loyal following and a collection of little known actors. Just like with the Harry Potter series, the Twilight franchise also launches its second installment one year later on the same mid-November weekend. But whereas the second wizard flick posted a slightly smaller bow, New Moon will see substantial growth in its numbers thanks to more fans, more attention, and 605 more theaters. The PG-13 pic has a new director in Chris Weitz (The Golden Compass, American Pie) but still features the three main characters played once again by Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson, and Taylor Lautner. Lautner gets a bigger role this time around, as do Pattinson’s hair care products.
A year ago, Twilight opened in 3,419 locations and grossed a stunning $69.6M proving how powerful the franchise was. It was the fourth best opening of 2008, the fifth highest for November, and the second largest debut ever from outside the major Hollywood studios. Females made up 75% of the audience and while younger women were the core, the age range was broad with plenty of mother-daughter biz. The first shows at midnight on late Thursday brought in $7M and with more fan frenzy this time, that figure could triple. Saturday grosses collapsed a disturbing 41% and New Moon could do the same or even fall harder since fans don’t want to wait to see the Bella-Edward-Jacob love triangle any longer than they have to.
Mega-intense demand to see the film as early as possible means that Thursday night’s midnight shows will deliver grosses that have never been seen outside of summer. New Moon may follow a pattern like last summer’s Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The latest wizard pic bowed on a Wednesday in the summer making it different, but it pushed an unbelievable amount of its total opening weekend business to those first midnight shows. Prince set a new record with $22.2M worth of sales for its late Tuesday night showtimes representing 14% of the five-day $158M debut. That compares to 9% for its predecessor Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix and 8% for this year’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, both of which opened on a Wednesday with first shows at midnight on Tuesday night.
New Moon is a Friday opener outside of the summer so the dynamic will be different, but you can bet that Thursday night figures will be among the best ever for night-before shows and unless repeat business kicks in right away, it could let some steam out of Friday-to-Sunday moviegoing. Remember, Twilight absorbed an exceptionally high 52% of its opening weekend tally on Friday so New Moon could be even more front-loaded. Of course, if fans love what they see then their online feedback will spread instantaneously and energize other groups.
The marketing push from Summit has been relentless and awareness is sky high among fans. Winning over non-fans and men in general will be tough. The distributor should inform single guys everywhere that if they want to know where the girls are this weekend, it’ll be at the local multiplex. How much growth the New Moon opening will see will depend on how many patrons for Twilight saw the film after the first three days. Those folks are likely to be there in the first frame this time around. Looking at the recent James Bond films which also opened in November, Quantum of Solace’s bow grew 65% over Casino Royale’s from two years earlier. Don’t expect the same jump, but an increase of 40% or more is certainly possible, especially with the extra playdates.
Both MovieTickets.com and Fandango have reported that New Moon has broken their all-time advance sales records surpassing blockbusters like Star Wars Episode III and The Dark Knight. What they don’t mention is that the new Twilight flick had its tickets go on sale extraordinarily early – nearly three months before the release date. Still the film industry is set to see one of the biggest openings of all-time and one of the largest blockbusters of the year which will help raise the overall marketplace ahead of the lucrative Thanksgiving holiday next week. Opening in 4,024 theaters, The Twilight Saga: New Moon could collect around $102M this weekend.
